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US Plans: Climate Change
Published January 2, 2022
President Biden truly understands the existential threat that is climate change. In the first week of his presidential term, Biden establishes the White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy (Climate Policy Office)* to oversee all matters of federal climate action, and appoints Gina McCarthy as its head—formally as the National Climate Advisor. Along with the formation of the Climate Policy Office, Biden issues McCarthy to supervise the National Climate Task Force, consisting of the heads of 21 federal agencies and departments.
After three months of collecting data from each federal agency and deliberating the best pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in our economy, McCarthy composes the newest version of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the United States—one year overdue.† Following this NDC’s completion, President Biden seals it with whole-hearted approval.
The year 2005 marked the peak of CO2 emissions in the US. Since then, CO2 emissions have been at a steady decline. But if we want to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, substantial milestones need to be set, and the task force has done just that: The Nationally Determined Contribution of the US promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across its economy by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Pathways
The pathways described in the NDC are designed to create jobs, cleanse local air pollution, support disadvantaged communities, and advance environmental justice.‡ Most importantly, they have the potential to avoid tens of thousands of premature deaths by 2030.
The sectors of the economy that emit significant quantities of greenhouse gases are outlined below with their respective pathways:
Energy
In 2019, the energy sector represented 25% of total US greenhouse gas emissions. Although it is not the greatest contributor to emissions, it demands the most attention because its presence resonates across every other sector of the economy.
The task force plans to reach 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. A goal such as this is wildly ambitious, considering that data from 2020 shows only 19% of US electricity use came from renewable generation—mostly hydropower and wind.
While most US energy generation comes from fossil fuels, the task force will retrofit existing coal and natural gas power plants with carbon capture technology. As these power plants are being secured with carbon capture technology, federal agencies and departments will support state governments in rapidly deploying carbon pollution-free power plants, electricity transmission, and energy storage.
Over a period of 10-20 years, the development of clean energy power plants will slowly replace existing coal and natural gas power plants, and we will see improvements in public health as clean energy reduces air and water pollution.
Transportation
The transportation sector stands as the leading contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, representing 29% of total US emissions in 2019. Most of these emissions come from petroleum, through use of light-duty vehicles (SUVs, pickup trucks, and cars). Also contributing to emissions are heavy trucks, aircraft, trains, and ships.
The task force plans to raise incentives for zero-emission personal vehicles and support wide deployment of public charging stations. All sounds well, though the real goal of eliminating transportation emissions won’t come until electric vehicles are affordable to low-income citizens.
Although low-emission aviation methods are far from deployment, the task force is working with the International Civil Aviation Organization to fund research and development for low-carbon renewable aviation fuels, as well as supporting decarbonization methods for shipping with the International Maritime Organization.
Buildings
Most emissions from buildings come from electricity, so as long as the US makes advancements in eliminating emissions in the energy sector, building sector emissions will fall accordingly. Other emissions from the building sector come from air-conditioning, heating water, and cooking.
Methods to eliminate these emissions include implementing modern energy codes (standards to improve energy efficiency) to new buildings and renovations, as well as requiring new buildings to include induction stoves and heat pumps.
Industry
The task force incentivizes the use of carbon capture technology for industrial processes that are not likely to reach zero-carbon emissions in the near future, due to a lack of next-generation industrial technology.
Each federal department and agency supports early markets in clean technology not only from funding or subsidies, but also through its procurement power. To continue their operations, they purchase goods and services they need from domestic businesses practicing zero-carbon emission methods.
Agriculture
The agriculture sector involves three potent greenhouse gases: CO2, nitrous oxide, and methane.
CO2 emissions come from disturbances in the soil. Like any other carbon pool, soil has the ability to sequester and release carbon. Methods to improve carbon sequestration in soil are through the usage of cover crops, and also rotational grazing for those raising livestock.
Nitrous oxide emissions come from inefficient fertilizer use and manure treatment. The task force will reduce these emissions by supporting and incentivizing efficient nutrient management.
Methane emissions come from manure treatment and enteric fermentation. The NDC mentions offering incentives to improve manure management, but gives no insight on how they will deal with methane emissions from enteric fermentation.
The most suitable pathway we have to reduce methane emissions in agriculture is by raising less livestock. But just how possible is this? The meat industry is expected to rise by $290 billion in market value by 2025 due to increases in income and population. Raising less livestock requires major reductions in consumer demand, which can be possible if the average consumer switches to a vegetarian or vegan lifestyle.
Lands and Oceans
290 hectares of forest scatter across the US, an amount remaining relatively the same since 1910 due to various reforestation laws, regulations, and policies. In 2019, increased tree coverage in urban areas, forest management, storage in harvested wood products, and agricultural soil management sequestered about 800 million metric tons of carbon, totaling to 12% of that year’s US greenhouse gas emissions.
The task force recognizes that the increase in global temperatures have contributed to longer wildfire seasons and wildfire size. Federal and state agencies plan to continue investing in forest protection and management, finding ways to reduce the magnitude of wildfires as they occur.
Oceans are another carbon pool deserving the task force’s attention, on account of their ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, oceans have absorbed 28% of carbon from human activity. It’s then up to vegetated coastal ecosystems—mangrove forests, seagrass beds, salt marshes—to sequester this absorbed carbon and avoid an imbalance of minerals that smaller aquatic life depend on.
Recently, though, rising sea levels and industrial waste are threatening vegetated coastal ecosystems, and further damage to these ecosystems can release great quantities of carbon. The task force plans to fund projects dedicated to restoring coastal ecosystems, as well as other projects aiming to increase carbon uptake in waterways and oceans.
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Black Carbon
Commonly known as black soot, this particulate matter derives from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels. You can see it as the black smoke spewing atop coal power plants, or from the exhaust system of a running car. Black carbon is dangerous to the climate and to human health, and can remain in the atmosphere for months. Implementing carbon capture technology in existing coal power plants—as the task force promises—will eliminate black carbon altogether.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
A greenhouse gas used in refrigeration, air-conditioning, building insulation, fire extinguishing systems, and aerosols. They are also increasingly used to replace ozone-depleting substances.
Enacted in December of 2020, the AIM Act requires the EPA to phase down production and consumption of certain HFCs, and to manage how they are used and which chemicals are appropriate as substitutes. The EPA’s progress in phasing down HFCs continues to this day.
Methane
The greatest percentage of methane emissions come from the production and transport of natural gas and petroleum, followed by enteric fermentation in animal agriculture, anaerobic breakdown of organic matter in landfills, coal mining, and manure management.
The task force plans to further reduce methane emissions by plugging leaks from wells, mines, and natural gas distribution infrastructure.
Nitrous Oxide
The task force seems to care only of agricultural practices when it comes to nitrous oxide emissions—a reasonable plan of action, since the agriculture sector makes up 75% of total nitrous oxide emissions. Though I assume once the task force reduces emissions from this major outlet, smaller sources of nitrous oxide will be considered: industrial processes like fertilizer production, the combustion of fossil fuels, vehicle engines, and solid waste and wastewater treatment.
Onward
The United States NDC of 2020 falls nothing short of ambitious. It exceeds the straight-line path the US must take to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It discusses pathways that provide millions of new jobs in the coming years, improve public health through cleaner air and water treatment, and allow for ecosystems to safely adapt to changes in climate already underway.
I have full confidence the task force will provide a safe and orderly transition to reach our 2050 goal of net-zero emissions.
The White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy (Climate Policy Office) has several key functions:
Countries that have signed the Paris Agreement of 2015 pledged to write a Nationally Determined Contribution that outlines their individual goal to reduce emissions and the pathways they will take to achieve said goal. These countries also pledged to update their NDC every 5 years.ˆ
‡
President Biden acknowledges that the communities contributing the least to climate change will be hurt the most by environmental disasters. The US will try its best to adapt to these changes and avoid losses. Though losses will be inevitable, those affected will receive compensation through environmental disaster aid. Expenses made now to avoid losses will be far less than the expenses made in reparations due to inaction.ˆ